Thursday, November 02, 2006

Lebanese Sausage Fest , The Re-erection

As our esteemed leaders are slated to reconvene Monday, many are wondering what their plans are for this round of round table chit chat. I will tell you what each of them wants, what they really really want.

I'll start with the godfather of the parliament who has successfully combined the characteristics of super glue and teflon in his persona. Nabih Berri loves the status quo and would love for it to continue forever. His natural fit is as the third side in unholy trinity of war criminals along with Geagea and Jumblatt. However, his popular base is enamored with the most Holy of men which puts him in a tough position that he skillfully transformed into a position of strength, way too much strength. He was able to place himself as the only bridge between the rival currents and thus the savior of the nation. If either camp was to gain full control of the government Mr. X would be reduced to second tier under the big kahunas of each camp.

The Bristol Team has one goal and they must work together to attain it. They want to weather the storm and hold ground. If they must give up the veto power in the cabinet, they can't do it for free. Ideally that would be one of theirs in Baabda, but realistically a compromise candidate in Baabda would be the best they can get. Judging by their performance over the last 18 months though, they will probably come out empty handed yet again.

The Orange team wants to go all out; new elections and a new cabinet (and in 10 months a new Prez) where they'd get the king's share. They know that Hezbollah would defer to them the leading role in a new cabinet because they would look sexier to the west, in spite of the Bristol media (nothing to do with ESPN) attempts at Syrianizing them.

Hezbollah would love to get their National Unity government by tweaking the current ministerial line up. They do not want to lose the perfect scapegoat in the person of Siniora. That way they would get their veto power without being burdened with more responsibilities at a time when they can buy time and just watch the Bristol team self-destruct. However, if that best case scenario fails to materialize, they will not hesitate to go all out and appease their allies.

Of course none of this would be possible without the presence of my boy Elie Skaff on the table without whom there would be no quorum.

Allah ykhallilna sale3tak ya iben Zahleh el bar.


EDB said...

Yeay sausage fest is back!!
i suspect bristol will serve kosher ones to accomodate their friends to the south...
wait, where's the enthusiasm from the international community this time? where's all the talk of landmark democratic developments in the cedar wonderland? i wish i could get a job catering at the event. imagine if i tripped while serving coffee, and el hakim ended up with a gorbatchov-like burn stain on his bald head. that might suit the orange general better..

Blacksmith Jade said...
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Blacksmith Jade said...

Decent post.

You know, I think theres a major issue here that I might be taking for granted but which may not be that obvious when it comes to a lot of peoples' analysis of the situation (or situations - as it would appear all we do is move from crisis to another) in Lebanon. That issue is timing.

This government's entire existence (platform, if you will) has been centered around the upcoming UN final report on the February 14th assassination of former Prime Minister Rafic Hariri. A report, which is due to be presented in approximately 1 month's time. Having allowed the March 14th-dominated cabinet to move the country's business along at an excruciatingly slow speed for the past 1.5 years, don't we ought to ourselves to at least let them stay in government until AFTER this bloody report is released?

What would be the point of toppling them now? What could be acheived that could not be acheived after the report is released, and more precisely, what added-value would we obtain by kicking them out of government now?

To put it mildly, these talks - like the talks that preceeded them - are a load of crap. Why do we even need to have them when we have a perfectly functioning Parliament who's exclusive priviledge (to borrow a term from a post of mine on the subject) it is to dicuss national matters.

As to the izteez, his uselessness has become completely apparent through the preposterousness of the agenda put forward for the talks.

I'm all for electoral reform, but seriously, we just got the "bejayzus" (edb ;)) blown out of us this past summer and he wants to discuss an issue at least 6 months down the line?

Blacksmith Jade said...
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Maya@NYC said...

now that i know you are from or close to zahle, i like you even more!

Anonymous said...

Good to see you are back into politics. We miss you

daoulat al ra'iss al 'istez nabih berri said...

My fellow compatriots,

If you're depressed, anxious, and lonely, here's a little tidbit I've composed in my spare time (when taking a short break from my heavy schedule of plundering and stealing your country's resources) Just a special gift from me to you to cheer you up. Please remeber to chant it out loud at your own convenience, preferably in public places with with friends and family:

Bil Dam, Bil Rouh, Nafdiq ya 'istez
Bil Dam, Bil Rouh, Nafdiq ya Sayyed Hassan
Bil Dam, Bil Rouh, Nafdiq ya General

Angry Anarchist said...

Ya istez, first let us get a taste of what you are cooking for us.

It seems like it's a طبخة غير شكل

Hopefully we wouldn't be sitting on a barrel of TNT ready to explode while being given a spoonfol of the soup you are cooking..

Anonymous said...

very insighful, keep it up Jamal

Anonymous said...

Cool post jamal..

My take on all this,, no riots will take place, people are tired of this slavery... rushing to the designated "saha" like sheep , to be counted ...

March 14, should be smart enough to cut a deal , where a unity government would be formed , with undeclared agreements that Aoun and HA would try no funny stuff, like resigning and forcing elections..