It's seems my analytical opinion on the situation as of last night was seen as an endorsement and pissed off some people. Oh well, your problem not mine.
Anyways, this morning I woke up to the noise of a different kind of fireworks. I think it was a combination of F-16s with punctured exhaust pipes and Soviet-made anti-aircraft artillery.
Last night I said I expected Israel to "punish" and then retreat to avoid escalation and Hezbollah fire power.
(Sorry I need a break , I see a 5 month-old-baby's charred body on Future TV right now.)
Olmert disagrees with me and thinks he should kill, burn 5 month-old-baby-terrorists, kill some more, and then face the inevitable negotiations.
I still think there will be no further escalations and a cease-fire agreement will be reached soon.Olmert needed to show he's not too kind, as if there was a danger of that, but now what?
Olmert can choose to annihilate Hezbollah completely. That would involve a major regional war that I don't think Israel is ready for or that the world community would allow. So that leaves Olmert with the only the choice of when to stop the killing and start the negotiations. Do it today with 30 civillians dead already, or do it next week with 300 dead.
I'm afraid 300 might be the number closer to quenching his blood thirst.
34 comments:
does he want something baptized to his name ya3neh "3anakeed ghadab olmert" or "WRATH OF OLMERT"... pffff.. or maybe he's thinking where's the sleeping coma guy when you need him. I'm afraid 30 won't do for him. the more he adds zeros, the more fun it would be.
you are getting hate mail???
bah, just ignore them.
sooner or later that was bound to happen.
I don't have a strong opinion about this or that...
each has advantages and disadvantages.
People will die, nothing new. Lets wait and see if something will change after some days of bombing and stuff, that's what matters.
No, it is your problem Jamal, certainly not ours. We are not all Hezballah. You can be Hezballah if you want, but not me. And while you look at the 5 month old baby burning on TV, say thanks to Hezballah, Iran ans Syria.
The only problem with Hizbollah is that they *did not* use their weapons to cleanse Lebanon from Israeli collaborators. But someone should do it, and do it soon.
kodder,
nothing new? would it be new if someone u know (God forbid) dies in these bombings?
i hope i am not overestimating ur word..
Hi Jamal.
You wrote: "I still think there will be no further escalations and a cease-fire agreement will be reached soon.
Olmert can choose to annihilate Hezbollah completely. That would involve a major regional war that I don't think Israel is ready for or that the world community would allow."
Very basic geopolitics is at work here. There is no greater check on Israel in this case. There is no Russia to apply pressure on them and America basically does not care anymore what they have to do to resolve the problems in their neighborhood. Europe and the UN are weak, physically powerless critics, who use big words and small deeds.
The Southern incursion in Gaza is not enough of a drain on resources to prevent Israel from attacking on its North front. Israel was prepared to repel armies of its neighbors in all simultaneous directions, so a little problem in the south with the tank-less Gazans is no problem.
Israel is going to try to eliminate all of Hizb'Allah. If I were in Lebanon, I would not want to associate myself with this group - why risk being a target?
hilal chouman.
every week 2 or 3 leb people are killed by israelies if you didnt know that.
like 3 weeks a whole family was killed at the beach.
so yes, nothing new.
kodder,
u assumed I didn't know that??
I am talking about "nothing new" word , kodder.
means that u r saying that people are numbers kodder..
means that who dies is added to the list..
i live in this world just as u..
(as u??)..
nothing new means nothing new.
killing of civilians is nothing new.
lebaneses civilians are killed on a weekly basis. SO YES.
nothing new.
i think there are other things to talk about better than that. end of dscussion..
people are dying out there and lebanon is back 60 years..
Satanic hizbullah deserve whatever they get. When they're eliminated I bet you'll see plenty of people rejoicing.
My friend
Writing from my home in Saida that is now effectively an island, i can only blame Hezbollah...
More so (and time will prove this) that there bluff that you believed has been called and nothing happened. Tourist season for tourist season you said?? No it just us who were hit
Airport vs airport? again nop Ben Gourion Intl is up and running and so is their ports and school and universities...
Hezbollah’s 15000 rockets can t see them or hear them all i ear are f-16's
no negotiation the bluff is called and whatever happens we lose and we lsoe a lot...
so next time ask Nassrallah to try to shut up rather than drag us into war while he and not Olmert is sittign back and seeing the whole country going up in flame like crazy nero. And about that child blame heazballah not Israel… when you tickle a lion into a killing frenzy you can’t blame it, and everybody knows how Israel wage wars so why the fuck did Hezballah provoke them? For two guys in jail? Are you telling me that you agree to fuck the whole country for two people!!!
Excuse my language but shells are falling near and I m angry
So what I call for is peace! Yes peace with Israel and no more war!
i second hilal and bob
What I'm reading is very said, because it seems that israeli terrorists are allowed to kill and destroy everything and the others have no rights at all.
What I say is fuck those israeli assholes
In response to daniel:
If hizbullah deserves whatever they get, did the jews deserves what they've got during world war 2?
bob 2 people?
check the facts again.
If hizbullah deserves whatever they get, did the jews deserves what they've got during world war 2?
This has to be the most inane comment of the day. The Jews did not deserve the Germans just as the Muslims did not deserve the Serbians. Hezb'Allah is a proxy army of Iran and political entity, not a persecuted tolerant religion.
Does the average Lebanese civilian deserve to be bombed because Hezb'Allah occupies 30% of the country? Well probably not. Not if he is one of the few ones who uses his power to disarm them or at least not to help them. But let's be honest - most average Lebanese willingly tolerate HA's presence either from mild fear of community opinion or from subconscious pride that HA annoys Israel on the border.
Finally - and this is an unemotional opinion from a dispassionate observer - HA and Hamas are about to be completely obliterated. Nasrallah miscalculated using 1980's logic. For the first time in history the American president, who truly is the only rational actor with any influence over Israeli activities, has given the zionists the "green light" to do whatever they have to do to end the insecurity caused by the masochistic gazans and other palestinian types. Basically his comment of yesterday was to the effect of: "sorry Lebanon, we were really trying to make friends with you and help you, but you're stuck in Israeli/Irani/Syrian cross-fire now and we're definitely not going to do anything to help Iran and Syria now." Realpolitik says: Much as we like Lebanon, Tel Aviv has made itself a much more important ally to the US than Beirut.
For the first time ever, Israel has internal political will and a free hand (thanks to Bush) to bomb its enemies as it wishes. I would be surprised if Nasrallah survives to August.
PS. If you have another house in Switzerland - go there.
"HA and Hamas are about to be completely obliterated" Get real. The Israeli government's most optimistic goal on both fronts is a cease-fire agreement (Hudna). Realistically they (we) won't even get that in any formal manner. Instead some third party will convey assurances between both sides that Israel stops its attacks and Hezbollah stops its operations and also keeps away from the border. Same thing in Gaza, Israel stops its attack and _all_ militias stop firing rockets and incursions into Israel. A prisoner exchange might even not be part of the deal. The cease-fire will hold for a couple of years or so and then we start over...
Until then the only actions by Israel will be like today. Bombing militia targets and a blockade.
A Israeli guy
I personally think that both sides are trying each other. Both sides are using their heads and thinking ahead. We see that Israel did not hit major infrastructures of Lebanon until now (specially the electricity). It seems that Israel is a bit careful of Siniora’s government. There is strategic planning and attack from Hizbullah and Israel. Hizbullah is hitting hard and accurately. Israel too is choosing its target areas.
Perhaps we are not aware of it, and we are the last to know, but both groups are using their military heads and not reactions. Hizbullah seems to be very ready, and it is obvious that it has prepared itself in advance, and knows where this is leading us to.
Moreover, I also think that Israel is choosing its targets and not hitting the major infrastructures, so that it can create internal conflicts among the Lebanese. The major area threatened until now are places where Shi’ites are majority (Southern Da7iye of Beirut, and the South). This point is vital to consider.
It’s a real tragedy of Shakespearian proportions
And these few precepts in thy memory
See thou character. Give thy thoughts no tongue, [no doubt a prophetic criticism of Druze war criminal W.K. Djumbalad]
Nor any unproportion’d thought his act. [that one is for Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah]
Be thou familiar, but by no means vulgar.
The friends thou hast, and their adoption tried,
Grapple them to thy soul with hoops of steel;
But do not dull thy palm with entertainment
Of each new-hatch’d, unfledg’d comrade. Beware
Of entrance to a quarrel; but being in,
Bear’t that the opposed may beware of thee.
Give every man thine ear, but few thy voice; [a precept the senile bishop of Bkerké and his many officious March 14 speakers should meditate]
Take each man’s censure, but reserve thy judgement.
Costly thy habit as thy purse can buy, [100+ Lebanese civilian deaths in exchange for the life of 2 miserable Druzo-Pharisaic soldiers…well that’s a steep price to pay for the latest Hezbollahi-sponsored summer festival]
But not express’d in fancy; rich, not gaudy; [that one is for Koreytem’s goateed faux sheikh]
For the apparel oft proclaims the man,
And they in France of the best rank and station [unlike say effeminate East-Beirut bourgeois types, the aspiring Ayatollahs of Lebanonistan have shunned the decadent outfits produced by decrepit Parisian couture houses for the pristine (“Al-Taqiyy l’Naqiyy” as Imam Ali used to say) pashmina headscarves of Persepolis]
Are most select and generous in that.
Neither a borrower nor a lender be;
For loan oft loses both itself and friend,
And borrowing dulls the edge of husbandry. [in reference to the hidden costs for Lebanon’s sovereignty of the loans contracted by Mrs. Gaga and the other March 14 fools with greedy Wahhabi lenders]
This above all: to thine own self be true,
And it must follow, as the night the day,
Thou canst not then be false to any man
Farewell; my blessing season this in thee!
(Hamlet, Act I, Scene III)
Sheikh Anon Seqitûrr Ibn Muscat Al Shiraz Al Wineri
rc, the airport was hit, twice already. regardless of what one thinks of the justification of these retaliations, it's the people of lebanon as a whole that will bear the cost of these attacks, not the "shia" community as you claim.
On another note, I feel lebanon is like that kid in the leb-swede movie "Zozo", constantly taking a beating and not being able or wanting to return the blows.
VB
I don't know you Jamal and I've never been to Lebanon. I would have loved to have visited, but I suppose that's off the agenda now....
However, if I may I'd like to make a few assumptions about you. Reading your profile, having read about how Beirut changed in the 1990s and 2000s, and just by the fact that you've got a blog, I suspect that your way of life isn't a million miles away from mine.
Actually, it probably isn't a million miles away from a lot of people in Israel. An outrageous thought I know. But one of the joys of reading Lebanese blogs is the realisation from most of them that, whatever the differences with Israel, human beings live south of border. By and large posts seem to be free from two dimensional rants (though sadly not the comments).
Which makes your remark about blood lust and 300 dead pretty disappointing. Although fair enough, you are in the firing line and I'm sitting here with my glass of red wine so I'm not really in any position to lecture.
The thing is this: Don't you think that Olmert and Hizbollah have something in common? Which is that they don't really care about people like you, who want to live in a normal prosperous country.
I kind of get the feeling that you are simply in the way. Tourists might never come back, the electricity might cut off, you might not be able to get online. A small price to pay for the greater good. Their good, not yours.
In fact, rather cynically I'd suggest their purposes are even served by the "five month old babies" you talked about. Cranks up the temperature even more, and more power to them.
Meanwhile to Olmert it's not a case of 30 or 300 dead. It's about showing that the Israelis are going to go completely ape so that the other side wonders what he's going to do next (as an aside, I don't think it will work as Hizbollah's ability to bear casualties is greater). Again, he doesn't care about you. You're simply in the way.
There's an alternative to indirectly negotiating with Hizbollah. The Lebanese Govt offers to do what most Governments do. Police and control their own borders. Package it as part of a wider deal on a prisoner exchange including, yes, prisoners held in Israel.
Everyone wins. You get control of your own borders and Lebanese prisoners get released without Israel having seen to have gotten nothing in exchange.
Its Ass Kicken Time and Israel is going to hand it to you over some supid ass hezballah idiots party of god my ass party of stupid shits more like
Lebanese let terrorists in and tolerate them. Now when someone with balls does your work for you, people get upset. You kicked out the Syrians....now grow balls and do the same to the Iranian proxies.
Hizballah has one choice: hand back the soldiers or be eradicated. There is no middle ground, the die has been cast. Israel has the power to eliminate them quickly and efficiently. It will do so. Please show some gratitude to Israel for doing what you should have done by getting rid of these terrorist scumbags and understand that there will inevitably be collatoral damage. Your cooperation with the IDF will speed the process of restoring once-proud Lebanon's sovereignty back from Syrian and Iranian occupiers and, with any luck, bring about a lasting and rich peace with Israel.
Globular ! Vas te faire foutre fils de putes !
We gonna kick your ass american bastard s !
It's just the begining. Wait and your gonna see .
Maybe lebanese let terrorists in and tolerate them because they do not have enough balls!!!! Someone said..
I'll say, the whole international communities have no balls at all to face the biggest terrorists in the world " Israel & co
Well, if we had an issue with Israel, we probably would come down on them.
As it is right now, they are a sovereign country trying to defend their borders against hostile neighbours, who have time and again shown their malignant intent toward the rest of the world through terrorist actions against completely innocent people all over the world - something we cannot say of Israel.
Face it... the day you stop terrorism from sprouting in your countries is the day you can start looking towards peace.
I just read ur blog i think dated on the 12th! I'm Lebanese mariontie..So you're blaming Hezebollah for starting this? What about the dumb Jews? Didn't the Jews take thousands of lebanese ppl? So what if Hezebollah took 2 does that give the Jews the right to bomb the airports, and bridges? Stop blaming fellow Lebanese ppl and look to blame the jews, america, france and who ever else that wants to see Lebanon as a shit hole! I can't imagine what its like to live amongest all this as I don't live in Lebanon. But that doesnt mean that I dont know whats going on! This is a war against the Jews and every arab nation, not just Hezebollah, Everyone should stand together united and finally rid the Jews from the middle east! They don't belong there! If anyone calls Hezebollah terrorists.. They should also call Israel, America and every other nation for killing innocent ppl. There never will be peace in the Middle East as long as the Jews are there!!!
To the anonymous above:
There will certainly never be peace in the middle east as long as people have your view on things.
How on earth did you get the idea that the entire world wants to see Lebanon as a shit hole?! Nobody (except perhaps Syria and Iran) wants to see Lebanon suffer, but your inability to control terrorist groups within your border and thoroughly denounce their actions have led to this terrible situation that your country and it's citizens find themselves in. The moment you start taking responsibility for your own country is the moment that things may start going your way. Untill then you will find little sympathy from the outside world.
I find it particularly funny that you claim that the israeli people have no place in the middle east - if anything, they have a longer, more documented presence in the area than have the arabs. Believe me, ridding the region of jews is not an option. You'd be better off accepting Israel and making the best of the situation. In reality, having a democratic, technically advanced country in the region should be an asset to all!
What I find extremely vexing is that all of this boils down to is your inability to cope with the religous muslim fanatics whose say they are the party of god - Hezbulla stupid shits - if sombody or some group openly said there main mission in life was my eradication I would attempt to do it to them - and believe me israel has tried to keep civilian casualties to a minimum but if your going to allow these assholes into your society and parlament- your going to have to suffer some of the misery to- Oh and by-the -way to the arab poster How many times must israel kick your ass before you will let them be personally I hope they wipe your precious hezbullah from the face of the earth so they can go visit the child molester mohammed in hell
Jamal,
My name is Itai, and I'm from Haifa Israel (in the shelter room).
There is something that I wanted to ask you . When do you think the Pallestinians and the Lebanonies will have multiple parties but only one army ?
The internal conflicts between Israeli citizens are just as severe, but we all agree that there is only one armed forces group. For example, before the Gazza withdrwal, all of the setlers had to give up their personal guns as a means of precation. When there was the smallest sign of a "civil war" in the Gazza strip and in Amona, a huge number of soldiers and police used force against their own citizens - but there was still only one side that had armed forces. The other side had to accept the majoritie's decision - if they like it or not.
The Hizbolla has its own army, backed by Iranian money and Syrian's support. Even the Hammas has an army inside the Hammas army which is backed by Iranian money and Halled Mashal's support (Syria again). These two flanks were the ones that provoked Israel, in a time that is perfect for Iran and Syria. Did you see any reporter ask the G8 about Syrian's involvement in Hariri's murder ? Did you here any question about Iran's nuclear project ?
I am sorry to hear about the casualties in Lebanon. Our reports here constantly state the number of casualties on both sides but also add that the Israeli ariforce is doing its best not to hurt "non-involved". This is a new term in hebrew to describe civillians that do not harbor Hizbolla or Hammas weapons.They inteview pilots every day, and they keep saying that their targets are being approved by many sources in order to minimize the number of human cassualties.
The political motives behind the length of this war, will unravel in years to come. Obviusly, Israel as a state has no interest to hurt "non-involved" lebanonies since it will increase the European pressure to end the attacks (and unlike what many think 40% of Israel's export is to Europe). Unlike what you think, the Israeli media will not conceal the fact that many Lebanonies are hurt, and it will cause a political opposition to Ulmert. Ulmert knows that, and that is one of the reasons he is not sending ground forces (and not because they are afraid from Hizbollas anti tank missiles which are no match for the Israli reactive armor). He remembers what happened to Sharon in Sabra, and does not want to have this happen to him too. Israel does not also want its ground forces to invade lebanon, since it will require reserve recruits and disrupt Israel's business life.
In fact, as long as the airforce does not miss, the attacks on southern beirut and the bakaa valley are expected to continue for a long time.
Keep yourself in a safe shelter like I do, and ask your relatives in the shite areas of Lebanon to take a summer vacation in the North.
Keep Safe,
Itai
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